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Real estate's down from the peak

Ottawa's real estate market is showing signs of finally settling down.

In the new-home sector, builders scaled back in 2011, starting an estimated 5,750 homes (final numbers aren't in yet), compared to 6,446 units in 2010 and 5,814 in 2009, according to figures from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

The pace was the slowest since 2005, when builders started a total of 4,982 homes. According to Sandra Pérez Torres, senior market analyst for CMHC, the decline shows that demand from first-time home buyers, spurred on in recent years by record low interest rates, has largely been satiated. New developments will need to be driven by a different demographic she calls the "move-up buyer: " People looking to start families and buyers in the 45-to-55 age bracket looking for more space.

"Employment for these moveup buyers has been growing this year, when compared to other age groups," said Pérez Torres.

"The move-up buyers are the ones really driving the market, especially in the last half of 2011. We are expecting that to continue into next year."

For the first 11 months of the year, new home sales are down 9.2 per cent to 3,687 units compared to 3,995 in the same period last year. The total is also well below the five-year average of 4,325 units. John Herbert, executive director of the Greater Ottawa Home Builders' Association, has attributed the slide to a combination of a land shortage for building new homes and the federal government's deficit reduction plan. Federal public servants are concerned about their future, awaiting details of proposed cuts to programs, services and jobs to meet the government's goal of trimming $4 billion from department budgets.

Industry experts caution that while the market for both new and existing homes is expected to cool, it's not expected to plunge. Continued immigration, a highly paid workforce and a growing baby boomer demographic looking to downsize into higher-end, highdensity developments should ensure continued demand.

Add to that strong employment numbers, low vacancy rates, steady rental rates, stable price increases and a balanced market for home sales and the city is showing no signs of a housing market bubble, they say. Still, condominiums could be the only market segment in Ottawa to show growth next year.

CMHC expects builders to begin construction on 1,500 condominium projects in 2012, an increase over the 1,475 started in 2011. The market is expected to be driven by baby boomers looking to downsize. According to CM-HC, more than 170,000 people in the capital region are between the ages of 55 and 74.

That demographic made up more than 40 per cent of all condominium buyers in Ottawa last year. CMHC expects boomers to account for as much as 50 per cent of all condominium sales by 2016 as the aging group continues to migrate to smaller homes.

Condominiums could be the only market segment in Ottawa to show growth next year. Construction of townhouses is expected to fall to 2,200 next year from 2,245 in 2011, while single-family homes will fall marginally to 1,850 from 2,000.

More than 80 per cent of all residential construction started in Ottawa in 2012 will happen in the suburbs, outside the Greenbelt.

Pérez Torres said the suburbs offer buyers more affordable housing choices than the downtown area, which is why builders are fighting so hard with municipal politicians to open more land for development outside of the core.

The builders' association has been in a long battle to persuade the City of Ottawa to stretch the urban boundary and free more land for development, a move city council has resisted as it pursues its goal of intensification within the urban core. Earlier this year, the association won a partial victory at the Ontario Municipal Board in getting 850 hectares of land released for development rather than the 230 that had previously been approved by council.

The condominium boom will have an impact on the resale market. As more Ottawans opt for smaller condo spaces outside the Greenbelt, CMHC expects a record number of homes to be offered on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) operated by realtors.

This will increase competition among sellers and should cause price increases to taper off. The housing agency expects resale values to move in lockstep with inflation, at about two per cent.

Buyers still have money to spend, thanks to the continuation of interest rates at their lowest point in 60 years. CM-HC said rates will likely remain low for most of 2012.

"Sales are strong. Inventory is a little higher than the previous year," Ottawa Real Estate Board president Joanne Tibbles reported. "That actually works out better for people. Realtors can actually work the listings, it gives them the opportunity to work for their sellers. It also gives buyers more of a choice so they don't feel pressured into buying the first thing that comes up."

The average price of a resale home in Ottawa increased 5.4 per cent to $344, 357 in the first 11 months of the year (final 2011 resale statistics won't be released until early 2012). By the end of November, Ottawa real estate agents had sold a total of 13,710 homes, up slightly from the 13,549 they sold during the same time frame in 2010.

Paul Rushforth, an Ottawa real estate agent, says 44 per cent of real estate activity in Ottawa over the past year involved homes priced below $300,000. About the same amount - 43 per cent - involved homes between $300,000 and $500,000. The remaining 13 per cent involved homes worth upwards of $500,000.

Marnie Bennett, another area agent, said as of Dec. 1 a total of 57 properties worth more than $1 million had been sold in Ottawa in 2011.

Most of those sales involved homes, but some condos located close to downtown are starting to hit six-figure territory. Bennett says milliondollar listings were once concentrated in Rockcliffe Park, but now homes priced at a million or more are scattered all over the capital, including areas such as Manotick.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen


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Death just a step away

Sometimes we do it without thinking. We step off the curb, unaware of our possibly fatal mistake.

We cross where there is no intersection, when the light isn’t in our favour. We’re distracted, chatting with friends, listening to music or reading a funny text on our smartphone.

Or just as often, we’ve done nothing wrong. We’ve obeyed the traffic signal but someone in a car decides to race the light in a hurry to get home. Or a young driver, showing off for his friends, takes a corner too quickly, jumps the curb and we’re gone.

In Ottawa, eight pedestrians lost their lives last year. Six more were killed a year before that and in 2008, 10 people died.

Earlier this fall, the Ontario Provincial Coroner’s office announced it would review pedestrian fatals over the last five years. The probe aims to identify common factors in the deaths and make recommendations to prevent more.

The fatalities are a growing concern for city officials and police, who plan to roll out new initiatives to curb such incidents.

Too often, such tragedies are preventable, say pedestrian safety experts and police.

“I think there’s a problem on both sides. I think a lot of these (pedestrian-car) collisions are preventable,” said Ottawa police spokesman Const. Henri Lanctot. “People cut corners. Safety has to be paramount for both.”

Safety experts recommend pedestrians take steps to prevent mishaps — such as visible walking gear, using a buddy system and forgoing headphones.

“Not just in Ottawa, we’re seeing a lot of inattention when people are walking,” said Valerie Powell, of the Canada Safety Council. “Especially in downtown cores, people really need to pay attention.”

But even in instances where pedestrians have the right-of-way, they must still pay attention, say experts.

“There could be a false sense of safety,” said Powell. “If you have distracted drivers and distracted pedestrians that could be a potentially fatal consequence.”

And while people may feel safer walking home after a few drinks, that could also be deadly decision if they’re not careful, said Powell.

Statistics suggest impaired walking is a growing concern, with 40% of pedestrians killed on Canadian roads in 2008 drunk. About two-thirds of them were more than twice over the legal limit, according to Powell.

This year has not been any better for pedestrians in Ottawa, with eight deaths so far.

The latest was a senior struck and killed by a garbage truck along Merivale Rd. last Thursday.

For the families of loved ones, the coroner’s investigation is welcomed news.

Ming Deng, the father of 17-year-old girl Serena Deng, who was run down in September, said he hopes the investigation will lead to safety recommendations to help pedestrians.

“We really hope all the communities are pedestrian-friendly,” said Deng.

Serena, a University of Ottawa student, was hit by a pickup truck as she walked across a busy stretch of Eagleson Rd.

The site of her death, at a park-and-ride near Hwy. 417, led to a campaign calling for safety measures, such as speed radar boards and a pedestrian bridge.

Although Serena’s death is not included in this study, her father welcomes any measures to help protect pedestrians.

danielle.bell@sunmedia.ca

@DBellReporting

2010

Nov. 20: Alta Vista Dr., between Dale Ave. and Industrial Ave., 7 p.m.

An elderly man dies after being hit by a van while crossing the street with a walker. There are no lights or crosswalk near the scene.

Sept. 16: Bank and Albert streets (2 deaths), 10:30 p.m.

Paul and Sherry Regnier are killed when a man fishtails onto the sidewalk.

Aug. 28: 4800 block of Brophy Dr., 12:30 a.m.

A 20-year-old man dies trying to hail a car he thought was his ride home. When he realizes it isn’t, he runs back across road and is hit by an oncoming car.

Aug. 11: Montreal Rd., near Lafontaine Ave., 10 a.m.

A 59-year-old man is killed after he is hit by a car. Police believe the 81-year-old male driver of the car hit the gas instead of the brake as he left a parking lot.

July 21: Eastbound lanes, Hwy. 417.

Woman hit by a car and killed while walking along highway.

Jan. 15: St. Laurent Blvd. at Brittany Dr.

A 71-year-old woman is hit by a car.

2009

Dec. 18: Bank St. north of Kilborn Ave. 8:45 p.m.

A 58-year-old man is killed crossing Bank after he is hit by a pickup truck.

June 21: Baseline Rd. at Clyde Ave., 4 p.m.

One man dies after being hit by a motorcyclist on Baseline.

April 25: Montreal Rd. west of Vanier Pkwy., 6:20 p.m.

A 48-year-old man dies crossing Montreal Rd. after being struck midway by an eastbound van and westbound Jeep. Teen girl also hit. Police say pedestrian emerged from in front of a car or between two parked cars.

March 26: Russell Rd. at Haig Dr.

A 50-year-old blind man dies after he is hit by a school bus at the corner of Russell and Haig. He was walking with the light at a crosswalk. Driver is charged with failing to yield to a pedestrian.

2008

Sept. 7: Somerset St. W near Lyon St., 12:30 a.m.

A 54-year-old man is killed as he crosses Somerset. Driver has licence restrictions, no insurance and leaves the scene.

Dec. 18: Bank St @ Gloucester Ave, 3 p.m.

A 60-year-old pedestrian is hit and killed during rush hour in Centretown.

Dec. 15: Hwy. 417, near Anderson Rd. and Walkley Rd., 4:30 p.m.

A 49-year-old man is walking along the highway when he is hit by a tractor-trailer.

Freezing rain and slick road conditions are a factor.

Oct. 31: Rideau St. at Cumberland St., 11 a.m.

An 86-year-old woman dies after she is hit by a dump truck.

Sept. 27: Nicholas Ave. near Laurier Ave. east, 2 a.m.

A 24-year-old man is walking on Nicholas when he is hit by a car and dragged about 50 metres.

Aug. 20: Laurier Ave. east @ Waller St.

A 98-year-old woman is crossing Laurier when she is hit and killed by a car. A 52-year-old man is charged with careless driving.

July 15: Colonel By Dr. at Rideau St

A 38-year-old man is hit by a car while walking in the area.

2007

Aug. 14: Cops say collision that kills a 71-year-old man not suspicious. Car driven by 81-year-old woman.

Oct. 22: A 26-year-old man is hit by a taxi on the Airport Pkwy. as he attempts to cross near Hunt Club shortly after 4:30 p.m.

2006

Oct. 25: Sandy Hill

A 78-year-old woman is hit and killed by a garbage truck.

Sept. 21: Rideau St., near Cumberland St., 8:30 p.m.

A tractor-trailer travelling eastbound on Rideau St. strikes and kills a man near the corner of Cumberland St.

Nov. 5: Ottawa River Pkwy. near Parkdale Ave., 1 a.m.

A male pedestrian is killed after he is struck by a car entering the eastbound lanes of the parkway.

Sept. 11: Bayview Dr., Constance Bay, 3:30 a.m.

A driver misses his turn and slams into a garage attached to a home. As he flees, he strikes a 29-year-old man and woman who are walking down the road. One person dies. The driver is charged with multiple offences.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2011/12/13/death-just-a-step-away